Euro Rate

[Dominic Butcher]

The £ has continued its fall from earlier on in the week, the mid-market price has fallen below 1.11 for the first time in a long time. This hasn't been helped by the fact that UK retail sales stalled in August compared to the previous month. This has placed doubt over the recent recovery in consumer spending. The expectation was for a further rise but in the end it didn't come to fruition making the € more attractive to investors.

In the news recently everybody has been talking of a recovery for the UK economy but the same can't be said for the pound. Sterling continues to fluctuate against all currencies but the recent trend has been downwards across the board. This might be the right time to cut losses and fix a rate before it falls further!

Any questions let me know on ++(0)1296 339811 or dominic@escapecurrency.com

[Dominic Butcher]

The £ has fallen further, close to below 1.10. The pound fell to its lowest level vs the € since April. This morning we have seen some more bad economic data as house sale rises stalled in August. Homes sold fell from 87,000 to 83,000 which is the first drop this year. This highlights the uncertainty surrounding the UK making it close to impossible to see a sustained improvement int he pound because at the moment we are in a declining market.

The rates may seem terrible when held up against the highs of a couple of years ago but the reality is that there is nothing to suggest that there will be a rally in the pound in the short-to-medium term.

If there are any questions just let me know, dominic@escapecurrency or ++(0)1296 339811

[Dominic Butcher]

The pound continues to falter as clouds form over the strength of any predicted UK recovery. The pound fell to 1.0822 vs the € first thing this morning (Monday)

The pounds short to medium term future remains unclear as so much value has been lost over the last few weeks. At the moment it’s loss in value has been down to its reputation as a high yield currency being tarnished for many investors. Many analysts are looking forward to the G20 summit this week to gain a clearer picture for what’s ahead for the £. Should the summit indicate a fall in risk appetite as fears over a sustained recovery grow it is more than likely that Sterling will follow suit and tumble.

We are in a declining market at the moment for Sterling and many analysts are expecting this to only become worse in the near future.

Any questions let me know on ++44 (0)1296 339811 or dominic@escapecurrency.com

[Dominic Butcher]

The £ continues to be volatile as the markets have been shifting over a wide range for the last few days. As I'm sure most people would have heard Mervyn King said that a weak pound would help the UK recovery, the £ responded by tumbling back from close to 1.10. We have had some positive news with regards to the Eurozone as their unemployment rose also UK House Prices rose as well to the same levels as August last year. We have seen an 80 point fall today already down to 1.0876

However, the pound continues to fall with some analysts saying parity is more of a certainty than a possibility from articles I have read today!!

Any questions let me know on ++44 (0)1296 339811 or dominic@escapecurrency.com

[Dominic Butcher]

The £ took a tumble after staging a mini-recovery half way through last week. The pound has fallen to 1.0697 vs the € this morning (Monday)

This sharp fall has been caused by a forecast of interest rates “staying low for years”. The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) predicts that interest rates will stay at their current levels of 0.5% until 2011 and not reach 2% until 2014. The bad news continued as the report expected the current quantitative easing programme of £175bln to be expanded by a further £75bln in the future.

The CEBR report released also had some particularly negative news for the currency as well. Predictions of a fall to 1.40 against the dollar and below 1 vs the € were also included.

All of these bits of data just highlight the problems we are faced with at the moment if you are looking to buy €’s. Compared to last year the rates of exchange we are seeing at the moment aren’t great but everything is pointing to them getting worse. Compared to 1.45 a rate of exchange of 1.07 doesn’t look appealing but compared to 1 it looks pretty good.

We can fix a budget for anything up to 18 months in advance so you can protect yourselves against further falls in the value of the pound. Any questions give me a ring on ++44 (0)1296 339811 or dominic@escapecurrency.com

[Dominic Butcher]

Following my pretty negative post at the beginning of the week I have actually got some good news for the weekend. In an extremely volatile market we have actually had some respite for Sterling over the last couple of days.  Today (Friday) the £ has pushed higher to 1.0976 vs the €

The recent upturn in Sterling's fortunes has been down to comments made by the Bank of England's head of markets Paul Fisher. He claims that the massive quantitative easing programme undertaken by the UK government has started to work and help the UK economy. The £ gains have been sustained with news that the Eurozone's trade balance has now become negative and is showing a deficit.

Compared to my post on Monday everything now seems rosy but we must remember gains can quite easily become losses especially for the £. Lots of people are taking advantage of spikes like the ones we are having at the moment to prevent the risk of it falling back down.

Any questions let me know on ++44(0)1296 339811 or dominic@escapecurrency.com

[Dominic Butcher]

Over the course of the week we have had some more good news for the £ and it has strengthened accordingly to as high as 1.1089 vs the € (a 1 month high)

The Bank of England minutes were released yesterday (Wednesday) showing there was a unanimous decision to keep the current quantitative easing programme at £175bln. This breathed confidence into the market as many analysts saw this to be a sign of growing positivity surrounding the UK economy.

On Friday we will see the 3rd quarter GDP data for the UK released which will be very important on determining the next move for the £. If the UK doesn't technically exit a recession as expected it is more than likely that the pound will tumble to new lows.

One thing we are stressing at the moment is to take advantage of spikes in the market rather than just sit on them waiting for better. Over the last 2 years we have seen people fall into the same trap time and time again, fix a budget because we all know it can get a lot worse.

Any questions let me know on ++44(0)1296 339811 or dominic@escapecurrency.com

[Dominic Butcher]

Everybody will probably have taken notice of the push towards 1.11 and beyond through this week. However, I hope the same people have seen the news out this morning (Friday)!

The UK economy contracted again by 0.4% when the market had priced in growth and a technical exit from the recession. This has led to the pound plummeting from over 1.11 to just below 1.09. This is a 200 point+ swing in 3 hours, sometimes we wont see those sort of shifts over 3 weeks! Like my last report stressed, spikes in the market need to be taken advantage of rather than admired. People completing soon should start looking into the currency markets as soon as possible to prevent losing out on other up turns.

Any questions or queries just let me know on ++44 (0)1296 339811 or dominic@escapecurrency.com.....If not have a good weekend!

[Dominic Butcher]

Surprisingly the £ had a good week last week as we climbed over 1.12 vs. the € for the first time in a while. This mainly came off news that the US economy demonstrated better than expected 3Q GDP data with growth at 3.5%. That news boosted confidence of a global recovery so riskier assets such as the £ were bought up. Also, Sterling was helped by mortgage approvals in the UK rising to an 18 month high of 56,000.

However, as we have started this week the pound has started another slump (mid 1.10's). This will have a lot to do with the Bank of England meeting coming up on Thursday. If, as many analysts expect, the Bank introduce more quantitative easing and possibly cut interest rates further it is more than likely that the pound could nose dive from the relative highs we are at currently. Also, if the European Central Bank tighten their currently lose monetary policy it is more than likely to boost the single currency making it even harder for the £.

Any questions or queries let me know on ++44 (0)1296 339811 or dominic@escapecurrency.com

[Dominic Butcher]

Sterling has again performed well over the last week as we are just clinging on above 1.12 at the moment vs the €. It has started to adjust downwards and as I write this the mid-market price is 1.1203.

The main reason for this spike was the fact the Bank of England only extended the current quantitative easing programme by £25bln. Many market analysts had expected a further £50bln to be pumped into the economy. This meant that even though the supply of Sterling increased it wasn't as bad as we first thought leading the £ to jump higher. For this week all eyes are on the Bank of England inflation report on Wednesday and the 3Q GDP for both the European economy and more specifically the German economy.

If surprises are around the corner expect a busy week for the £/€ rate. I will update the page as much as possible but if anyone has any questions just let me know on ++44 (0)1296 339811 or dominic@escapecurrency.com

[Dominic Butcher]

Since my last post we have seen a very volatile market for £ vs. € which has traded on a range between 1.1036 and 1.1293 which we saw this morning (Tuesday). Since then we have seen a slight fall with it currently trading at 1.1258.

One of the major reasons behind this £ spike was that both the French and German economies grew less than expected. This is a major sign for how tentative the recovery is in the Eurozone. However, it is worth pointing out that the UK is still in recession so even though Europe's signs of recovery are weak, at least they are showing them!

Without the crystal ball I'm afraid I cant tell you where its going next but if it were my money I would be taking advantage of the spikes we are seeing because everyone on this forum is aware it can go a lot lower!

Any questions let me know on ++44 (0)1296 339811 or dominic@escapecurrency.com

[Dominic Butcher]

After a relatively positive start to the week we have seen those gains slowly eroded as the week has progressed. A combination of the Bank of England minutes and worse than expected retail sales has led to the pound losing ground, the £ has dropped below 1.11 again to 1.1095.

The Bank of England minutes released on Wednesday showed that there was a three way split among its members with regards to the UK's current monetary policy. This showed the market how flimsy our current policy is which was compounded by the fact that retail sales for last month came in less than expected. There were also worries about the state of the UK's public finances which didn't help sterling to say the least!

If anyone is completing soon or needs to send any money over and is worried about the rates get in touch and I will be more than happy to help with any questions or queries you may have. You can get me on ++44 (0)1296 339811 or dominic@escapecurrency.com

[Dominic Butcher]

Sterling fell on Thursday, losing 1 percent on the day as the Euro rose to a one-month high versus the pound, as it remained under pressure in the wake of Wednesday's gross domestic product data. The data showed the British economy shrank by 0.3 percent in the third quarter compared with the initial estimate of a 0.4 percent contraction.

This came as a disappointment to some who were looking for a bigger revision and it exacerbated concerns that the UK economic recovery is lagging that of other major economies. The pound fell to a one month low against the Euro at 1.0963.

Anyone holding on to their pounds hoping to see a rise against the Euro by the end of 2009 may want to reconsider, if we see a repeat of 2008 when the pound lost 10% value in the last 4 weeks of the year, you will be kicking yourself for missing out on the highs of 09 or close to we've seen already this year. Remember 1.09 is better than 1.01  seen back in January.

Any questions or queries just let me know on ++44 (0)1296 339811 or dominic@escapecurrency.com

[Dominic Butcher]

The £ has stayed low over the last couple of days as the problems in Dubai's financial markets has had a knock on effect for the UK. According to many rumours UK banks are heavily invested in the Gulf State which casts further doubts over their solvency. If their exposure is that great it could put them at risk of collapse which will obviously harm the finance sector and the pound.

Until the crisis is resolved and we receive clarification from the UK banks on their position many analysts are expecting the £ to remain low and possibly drop further. At the moment sterling is just holding in the mid-1.09's vs. the €. We are expecting to gain a clearer picture of whats going to happen next as we have a busy week of economic data being released in the coming days which could swing the market one way or the other.

In the meantime if anyone has any questions or queries just let me know on dominic@escapecurrency.com or ++44 (0)1296 339811

[Sandra]

So, is anyone keeping an eye on the Euro Rate? 

Well today it topped E1.20/£ - which is good news for those that transfer sterling out frequently to Spain (like most of us I suppose).    It does ease the pain a little - and I can still remember 2 years ago when we actually got 99 cents for £1 at Sainsbury's....................

Sandra